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Grace Lawson-Rivers Group

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Rezo Frolov
Rezo Frolov

Geomorphology Book By Bloom Free 115 ~REPACK~

Comparing projections made under very different scenarios shows that of those regions most affected by climate change, the Arctic is projected to be the least vulnerable to climate-induced sea-level rise and ice loss in a 2C temperature rise scenario. Further, a polar region expected to be ice-free in September for the first time between the years 2100 and 2200 will experience a stabilisation of sea level rise, rather than the acceleration of ice loss that occurs under the most extreme scenarios tested.

Geomorphology Book By Bloom Free 115

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Modelling has considerable skill in projecting ice-free Arctic summers. However, Arctic sea ice is one of the least reflective features of the Earths surface, and is highly sensitive to solar insolation variations. Modelled Arctic sea ice extent and thickness often exaggerates the changes that have already occurred and is likely to under-estimate the ice-free seas of the summer. Also, observed and modelled changes cannot explain the extreme prevalence of summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. Given these limitations, more research is necessary to improve the accuracy of future sea ice projections . Nevertheless, the correlation between experimentally derived ice thickness and top-of-the-atmosphere-radiance with observed sea ice extent means that change in summer sea ice extent can be used to judge future Arctic climate impacts.

A further difference between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections occurs in the extent of seasonal sea ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Sea ice is projected to remain more abundant in the Beaufort Sea and around the Bering Strait for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. This could lead to a greater potential for offshore ice-fishing and oil and gas exploration. However, it is also possible that growth in seasonally ice-free areas outside of the Arctic Circle might reduce the abundance of this seasonally-ice-free sea ice.


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